Euro 2016 Conclusions: predictions results

euro_2016So the Euro 2016 has seen some interesting matches, beautiful surprises along the way, expected results in some other meetings. With many tipsters and blogs trying to come with predictions on this tournament (you can read my personal predictions submitted before the start of the tournament), interested fans and punters surely had a wide selections of choices to read for making their bets.

As a round up on results, we have gathered data on all of the matches we are bringing you this:

SportsBettingAM.com

SportsBettingAM has generated match by match prediction for Euro 2016, all of the predictions concluded by a computer system based on specific algorithms analyzing team data, past performances, head to head statistics, all in order to come up with probable results that has true data behind and zero emotions involved as tipsters/humans in general would tend to do.

Out of 51 games, SportsBettingAM system did not know how to calculate predictions for 3 matches due to lack of some information required, so we’re left with 48 matches. Staking 100 euro on each game prediction at spotted odds we got:

  • Total staked: 4800 euro
  • Total won: 3908 euro
  • ROI: -18.58%

Not so good if you look at this data for sure. We have more tweaking to do in order to improve the return on bets. But than again you agree there have been many surprises during the tournament.

Underdog Betting

For the beauty of the game and statistics, we have calculated what would have happened if one would have bet only on underdogs in each game (Full Time result). So the bets would have been on one team, never on draw or on favorite.

Out of 51 games, calculating on a 100 euro stake for each game on the underdog we got:

  • Total staked: 5100 euro
  • Total won: 6245 euro
  • ROI: +22.45%

As you can see, the Underdog betting system worked out quite well, returning a nice positive balance and a nearly 22.5% ROI.

Favorite Betting

So if we’ve made the calculations for the underdog betting, why not checking what would have happened if one would have bet only on favorites during the Euro tournament. Never bet on draw or underdog. Calculations done on 1X2 odds for Full Time result.

Out of 51 games, calculating on a 100 euro stake for each game on the favorite we got:

  • Total staked: 5100 euro
  • Total won: 3907 euro
  • ROI: -23.39%

Betting on the favorite seems to have delivered the worst results of all, with a negative 23% ROI.

Conclusions

Rounding up the date above, betting on the underdogs of the matches would have been the most profitable, a real value betting if one would have backed the surprises in this tournaments. With a nearly 25% ROI on the underdogs, this is results many tipsters would have loved to get during the Euro.

 

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